000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N84W 6N90W 13N115W 10N125W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 88W-106W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
10N-14N BETWEEN 113W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 126W-132W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 22N140W. A 
90-100 KT NW JETSTREAM W OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA FROM 
32N140W TO 27N136W THEN SW JET 80-90 KT EXTENDS NE TO 32N130W. 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 25N14W. OVERCAST 
AREA OF DEEP LAYER CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 
NM E OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 
20N127W TO A TO A POORLY DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
10N130W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 22N115W SW 
TO 10N122W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE W IS ENHANCING 
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ DESCRIBED ABOVE. AN E 
TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
GUATEMALA TO 12N112W.

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH GALE 
FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW  THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGH ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE 
FIRST ONE IS ALONG 16N114W TO 9N114W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 113W-118W. SECOND 
TROUGH IS FROM 14N128W TO 8N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM 30N-24N 
ALONG 120W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

$$
DGS