000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0200 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS CAN BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM 06N79W TO 07N90W TO 
06N100W TO 11N113W TO 08N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM S AND 45 NM N OF THE AXIS 
FROM 125W TO 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 132W TO 135W AS WELL AS FROM 98W 
TO 105W AND WITHIN 120 NM S AND 45 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 86W TO 
93W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL DAYS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING GALE 
CONDITIONS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH 
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT 
WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.  

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF 10N BETWEEN 105 AND 
115W CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 112W.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND 
FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW 
LEVEL TROUGH.  FARTHER W...ATMOSPHERIC LIFT HAS BEEN ENHANCE IN 
THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET FOUND NEAR 
10N125W.  THIS IS HELPING THE CAUSE FOR NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S AND 45 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
FROM 125W TO 128W...E OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG 129W.  IN BOTH 
CASES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OF MOIST TROPICAL 
AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING THE 2.5 INCH 
RANGE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL CONVECTION TODAY.  
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE AS 
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW WATERS...BRINGING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE REGION E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
EASTWARD THROUGH N WATERS TODAY AND AND THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE 
LATE FRI/EARLY SAT AS ITS MID LEVEL IMPETUS IS FORCED NORTHWARD 
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE N EASTERN 
PACIFIC IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE 
BACK EDGE OF THAT BROAD TROUGH.  A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD 
APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT.  NW SWELL WILL BE 
DOMINANT OVER NW WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK