000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 10N105W 10N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 78W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
8N-12N BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 110W-113W.

...DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N134W TO 28N133W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NE OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N125W TO A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 14N128W. AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
STREAMING NE INTO THE AREA OVER THE RIDGE N OF 19N W OF 129W.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA THEN 
SW TO 12N118W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N113W WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E TO W FROM THE NW 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA TO 11N112W. DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH AND INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING 
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND 
HONDURAS.

A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG AND INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST IS 
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS 
REACHING UP TO 50 KT. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ALONG THE ITCZ...THE
FIRST FROM 13N106W TO 8N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITCZ IS FROM 8N-12N 
BETWEEN 104W-108W. THE SECOND TROUGH IS FROM 14N121W TO 7N122W
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 33N129W TO 21N114W.

$$
DGS