000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272147 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON OCT 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W TO 8N90W TO 9N100W 9N110W 10N120W 9N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W-82W...BETWEEN 90W-94W AND ALSO BETWEEN 105W-112W. ...DISCUSSION... SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN RATHER ON THE WEAK SIDE AS CURRENTLY ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 11N98W TO 8N99W IS MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N98W. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS TROUGH IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ...AND IS WITHIN 60-90 W OF THE TROUGH FROM 8N-10N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 18N116.5W INTO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 16N118W. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW OF 1011 MB IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 14N139W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 17N. THIS LOW IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRES TO THE N IS ENHANCING EASTERLY TRADES FROM 14N TO 19N W OF ABOUT 134W. A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PSUH INTO THE NW CORNER WED INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THU AND FRI FROM NEAR 30N131W TO 23N140W AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO 11 FT THU AND FRI OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FURTHER REINFORCED FRI AND SAT AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE N OF 30N140W. A NEARLY STATIOANRY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 16N134W WITH A RIDGE NNW TO 22N135W TO NW OF THE AREA AT 32N140W. AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREMAING NE INTO THE AREA OVER THE RIDGE N OF 19N W OF 129W. A VERY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TRAIN (UP TO 21 SECONDS AS INITIALIZED BY THE WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY BRING LARGE WAVES TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY MID-WEEK. GAP WINDS... LATEST PRES ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT UNDER WAY ALONG AND INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTER OVER NE TEXAS DROPS SWD. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1530 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED N WINDS OF UP TO 35 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS TO THE 35-45 KT FOR THE GULF BEGINNING AT 1800 UTC TODAY. AS THE STRONG HIGH BUILDS FURTHER S THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE BY 1800 UTC TUE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 19 FT. THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW STORM BY 1800 UTC WED AND TO 35 KT THU...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI. THIS PRES PATTERN HAS ALSO INITIATED GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE WINDS OF 20 KT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY FRI. $$ AGUIRRE