000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED FROM 06N78W TO 09N99W TO 10N120W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 
80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N AND 60 NM 
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

GAP WINDS...
WITH ONE WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALREADY THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND ANOTHER STRONG REINFORCING FRONT QUICKLY MOVING 
SOUTH...A TEHUANTEPEC HIGH WIND EVENT IS A LIKELY OCCURRENCE. 
THOUGH SCATTEROMETER DATA SO FAR TODAY MISSED THE REGION 
...GIVEN THE STIFF N WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE TIGHT 
PRESSURE PATTERN ANALYZED OVER MEXICO (ON THE S PERIPHERY OF A 
1042 MB HIGH OVER THE PLAINS) WENT AHEAD AND INITIALIZED THE 
GALE EVENT AT 12 UTC. AS THE REINFORCING FRONT RACES 
SOUTH...THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO OR NEAR STORM 
FORCE BY TOMORROW MORNING ELEVATING SEAS UP TO 18 FT.   

THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LIKELY ALSO SET UP A GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EVENT BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING WINDS LOWER THAN WARNING CRITERIA. 

REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE SPREAD OUT 
ACROSS THE TROPICS. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 98W/99W FROM 
07N-12N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING 
ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS AND ENHANCED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. 
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ITS 
MAIN EFFECT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY BE 
ENHANCING NE/E WINDS TO ITS N. THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OF 
T.D. 17-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16N117W. THE ONLY EFFECT OF THIS 
FEATURE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NE TRADES W OF THE WEAK LOW. 
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 137W FROM 11N-17N. SHOWER 
AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED AT MOST WITHIN 300 NM OF THE AXIS. 
NO DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY CROSS THE NW CORNER WED INCREASING WINDS 
AND SEAS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN THU AND FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF. 

VERY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL (UP TO 21 SECONDS IN THE WAVE WATCH 
INITIALIZATION) IS SPREADING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE AREA AND 
WILL LIKELY BRING LARGE WAVES TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY 
MID-WEEK.

$$
CANGIALOSI