000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W TO 08N95W TO 09N120W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS 95W TO 101W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LARGE AND 
WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 35N134W TO 25N130W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED 
DRY AIR IS N OF 26N W OF 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 
THE TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN 32N120W
TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 12N127W. TO THE E OF 
THE RIDGE...A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NEAR 26N112W WITH A TROUGH S 
TO 13N110W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY 
AIR IS W OF THE TROUGH TO 118W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
TROUGH TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SEA. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N115W WITH A 
TROUGH THE NWD TO 20N114W. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 31N128W WITH RIDGE FROM THE SE TO 23N118W.

HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO LEADING TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE LATER TODAY.

$$
DGS