000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 8N91W TO 8N100W 8N110W 9N120W 8N130W
9N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W-99W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LARGE AND 
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 35N135W SSE TO 24N132W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND 
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS SEEN W OF 128W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER NEAR 12N128W TO 20N127W NE TO 27N123W TO BEYOND THE AREA
AT 32N123W. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE...A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 25N111W WITH A TROUGH S TO
20N110W AND SE TO 13N109W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS WITHIN 480 NM W OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE STREAMING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 
20N E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N112W TO A WEAK DISSIPATING
1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N113W. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 15N-19N 
BETWEEN 114W-116W.

A DISSIPATING 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 14N135W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 13N136W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG PRES BUILDING S OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL 
MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING A VERY 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE MEXICAN COAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 
NEAR 0030 UTC TONIGHT SHOWED N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS MARK THE BEGINNING OF A
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT FORECAST TO BEGIN AT OR JUST
BEFORE 1200 UTC MON. N-NE WINDS OF 25-35 KT WILL BE USHERED INTO 
THE GULF...THEN INCREASE TO 30-40 KT MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LAST 
WELL INTO LATE WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 15 FT 
LATE MON NIGHT...AND TO 18 FT BY TUE.

$$
AGUIRRE