000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W TO 9N94W TO 10N100W TO 10N112W TO 
10N124W TO 13N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-97W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LARGE AND 
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 34N135W SSE TO 24N132W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS SEEN FROM 26N-30N W OF 130W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER NEAR 12N128W TO 20N127W NE TO 27N123W TO BEYOND THE AREA
AT 32N123W. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE...A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 25N111W WITH A TROUGH S TO
20N110W AND SE TO 13N109W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS WITHIN 480 NM W OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE STREAMING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 
20N E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N11W TO 13N112.5W IS THE 
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 110W-114W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
THIS MORNING SHOWED NE WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE 
TROUGH.

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 14N 135W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 12N136W TO 13N135W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG PRES BUILDING S OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL 
MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING A VERY 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO
HAS PROMPTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BEGINNING AROUND 1800 UTC MON. N-NE WINDS OF 25-35 KT WILL BE 
USHERED INTO THE GULF...THEN INCREASE TO 30-40 KT LATE MON NIGHT 
AND POSSIBLY LAST WELL INTO LATE WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BUILD UP TO 15 FT LATE MON NIGHT...AND TO 18 FT BY TUE.

$$
AGUIRRE