000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W N OF 07N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO DEEP 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS THE EPAC. 
HOWEVER...THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED SOME SHOWER/TSTM OVER 
EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA.  
 
...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...08N80W TO 11N110W TO 
11N125W TO 09N131W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W...AND BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF AXIS WEST 0F 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVENTEEN-E...ANALYZED 1009 MB...ARE NEAR 
16N107W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NE 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. PART OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR MANZANILLO. THE REMNANT LOW IS 
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD 
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE 
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 
36 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS 
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. 
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES 
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FURTHER 
WEST...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N131W TO 7N133W AND IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER.

WINDS HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING 
BUT COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER GAP EVENT WILL OCCUR 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO POSSIBLE 
STORM FORCE WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 17 FT TUE MORNING. THE 
COMBINATION OF A POTENT COLD FRONT AND A LARGE STRONG CANADIAN 
HIGH PRES AREA WILL CAUSE THESE GAP WINDS.

HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE NE PACIFIC OCEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE SE 
COVERING THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 20N WEST OF 
120W.

ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 
CUT-OFF LOW IS NEAR 28N142W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE 
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW. WLY UPPER WINDS TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE LOW ARE BRINGING A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAJA 
PENINSULA ALONG 112W TO 13N. 30-50 KT WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS 
TROUGH CAUSED THE T.D. SEVENTEEN-E TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN INTO A 
REMNANT LOW. 


$$
GR