000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W AT 
24/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 255 NM...475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO 
MEXICO MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 
DEPRESSION HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW...AND THE LAST 
PUBLIC ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON 
THIS SYSTEM AT 2100 UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED 
WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF CENTER. AS A 
RESULT...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE 
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W N OF 08N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO DEEP 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS THE EPAC. 
HOWEVER...THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED SOME SHOWER/TSTM OVER 
EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA.  
 
...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...09N80W TO 12N103W TO 
10N115W TO 12N128W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 10N WEST 
0F 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

WINDS HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS 
AFTERNOON BUT COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER GAP EVENT 
WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 
STORM FORCE WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 16 FT TUE AFTERNOON. THE 
COMBINATION OF A POTENT COLD FRONT AND A LARGE STRONG CANADIAN 
HIGH PRES AREA WILL CAUSE THIS EVENT.  

AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
ZONE. THIS FEATURE IS CUT OFF AND IS NOW MOVING SW AWAY FROM THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE E PERIPHERY 
OF AN UPPER HIGH. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE 
OVER THE NW CORNER...ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS UP TO 11 FT ALONG OR 
NEAR THE FAR NW CORNER TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BUILD UP TO 11-12 
FT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 TO 10 FT SUN AND MON.

A MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 
120W TO A LINE FROM 12N110W TO 25N100W. THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE 
AND VERY DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA NORTH OF 25N.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM 
MENTIONED ABOVE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 30N125W TO 28N134W TO 
23.5N140W. ONLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS ANALYZED AS BROAD 
TROUGH.

$$
GR