000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241607 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI OCT 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 106.7W AT 24/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RATHER SMALL IN ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE...HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REMOVED TO THE W OF THE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WHICH IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A TURN TO THE NW TODAY AS IT WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW SUN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES BY MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W N OF 08N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WEST OF THE AXIS IS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR. THE CONVECTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ORGANIZED BY ANY SURFACE CIRCULATION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...09N78W TO 08N93W TO 12N106W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF PANAMA FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF COSTA RICA FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W...AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... WINDS ARE MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH HIGH PRES SURGING S OVER MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A GALE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SAT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE COMBINATION OF A POTENT COLD FRONT AND A LARGE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES AREA WILL CAUSE A STRONGER GAP EVENT...POSSIBLY STORM FORCE...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE. THIS FEATURE IS CUT OFF AND IS NOW MOVING SW AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE E PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NW CORNER...ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS UP TO 11 FT ALONG OR NEAR THE FAR NW CORNER TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BUILD UP TO 11-12 FT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 TO 10 FT SUN AND MON. A MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W TO A LINE FROM 12N110W TO 25N100W. THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE AND VERY DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA NORTH OF 25N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 30N125W TO 28N134W TO 23.5N140W. ONLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS ANALYZED AS BROAD TROUGH. $$ FORMOSA