000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 106.1W AT 
24/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO 
MEXICO MOVING NW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS 
RATHER SMALL IN ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE...HOWEVER SATELLITE 
IMAGERY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS HAVE
SHOWN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REMOVED TO THE SW OF THE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WHICH IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM IN 
THE NE QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A TURN TO 
THE NW ON TODAY AS IT HOLDS ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THEN WEAKEN TO 
A REMNANT LOW SUN NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TUE EVENING 
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W N OF 08N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WEST OF THE AXIS IS SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND 
EL SALVADOR. THE CONVECTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ORGANIZED BY ANY 
SURFACE CIRCULATION.
 
...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 12N110W TO 
08N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF 
OF PANAMA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 
10.5N TO 13.5N FROM 107W TO 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 07.5N TO 11N 
FROM 125W TO 130W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

WINDS ARE MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH HIGH PRES 
SURGING S OVER MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 
INDICATING A GALE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SAT. LOOKING FURTHER 
AHEAD...THE COMBINATION OF A POTENT COLD FRONT AND A LARGE 
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES AREA WILL CAUSE A STRONGER GAP 
EVENT...POSSIBLY STORM FORCE...EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
ZONE. THIS FEATURE IS CUT OFF AND IS NOW MOVING SW AWAY FROM THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE E PERIPHERY 
OF AN UPPER HIGH. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE 
OVER THE NW CORNER...ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS UP TO 11 FT ALONG OR 
NEAR THE FAR NW CORNER TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BUILD UP TO 11-12 
FT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 TO 10 FT SUN AND MON.

A MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 
120W TO A LINE FROM 12N110W TO 25N100W. THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE 
AND VERY DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA NORTH OF 25N.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM 
MENTIONED ABOVE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 30N125W TO 28N134W TO 
23.5N140W. ONLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS ANALYZED AS BROAD 
TROUGH.

$$
LL