000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240338 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI OCT 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 105.3W AT 24/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING N AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RATHER SMALL IN ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE...HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS HAVE SHOWN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REMOVED TO THE SW OF THE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WHICH IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE AND NW QUADRANTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO TURN NW ON FRI MORNING AS IT HOLDS ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THEN WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY SUN NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TUE EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W N OF 07N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER EL SALVADOR. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W TO 8N91W TO 11N105W TO 11N112W TO 11N120W 8N130W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W-121W...AND BETWEEN 124W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W-115W. ...DISCUSSION... WINDS ARE REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH HIGH PRES SURGING S OVER MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A RATHER SHORT-LIVED GALE...EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE COMBINATION OF A POTENT COLD FRONT AND A LARGE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES AREA WILL CAUSE A STRONGER GAP EVENT...POSSIBLY STORM FORCE...EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TIGHT PRES PATTERN OVER THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE N PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF SFC WIND REPORTS IN THE AREA RANGING FROM 10 KT TO NEAR GALE FORCE. BASED ON THE LARGE SCALE PRES PATTERN IT APPEARS THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES SYSTEM PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE. THIS FEATURE IS CUT OFF AND IS NOW MOVING SW AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE E PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NW CORNER...ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS SHOULD SEAS UP TO 11 FT ALONG OR NEAR THE FAR NW CORNER TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BUILD UP TO 11-12 FT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 TO 10 FT SUN AND MON. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN...BETWEEN A PAIR OF HIGHS NEAR 12N131W AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH N MEXICO AND WELL S INTO THE TROPICS...IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 114W-129W. $$ AGUIRRE