000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232151 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU OCT 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 104.8W AT 23/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 355 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING N AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RATHER SMALL IN OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH RATHER TIGHT BANDING FEATURE AROUND THE CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE CENTER IN THE NW AND N QUADRANTS...AND WITHIN 60 NM SW OF THE CENTER. EXPOSED LOW CLOUD LINES TURNING CYCLONICALLY AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER IN THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS. LARGE ARC CLOUDS SPREADING AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM ARE WITHIN 120-240 NM W OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT...THEN TURN NW ON FRI MORNING AS IT WEAKENS BACK TO A DEPRESSION AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW NEAR 17.5N 110.0W SUN AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W N OF 04N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...IS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR WEATHER IS EVIDENT NEAR THE BASE OF THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. STRONGEST OF THE CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN PANAMA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 07N90W TO 11N105W TO 10N114W TO 09N123W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 113W-120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 5N-9N E OF 85W. ...DISCUSSION... QSCAT PASS AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED 20 KT N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DUE TO THE ENHANCED N FLOW ON THE W PERIPHERY OF LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TO GALE FORCE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH HIGH PRES SURGING S OVER MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A RATHER SHORT-LIVED GALE...EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE COMBINATION OF A POTENT COLD FRONT AND A LARGE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES AREA WILL CAUSE A STRONGER GAP EVENT...POSSIBLY STORM FORCE...EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TIGHT PRES PATTERN OVER THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE N PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF SFC WIND REPORTS IN THE AREA RANGING FROM 10 KT TO NEAR GALE FORCE. BASED ON THE LARGE SCALE PRES PATTERN IT APPEARS THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES SYSTEM PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE. THIS FEATURE IS CUT OFF AND IS NOW MOVING SW AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE E PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NW CORNER...ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS SHOULD SEAS UP TO 10 FT ALONG OR NEAR THE FAR NW CORNER TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN...BETWEEN A PAIR OF HIGHS NEAR 13N133W AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH N MEXICO AND WELL S INTO THE TROPICS....IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 114W-123W. $$ AGUIRRE