000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE OCT 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 11N97W 10N110W 9N120W 8N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 114W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 136W-139W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1236 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED N TO NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH WINDS FROM THE NE-E IN THE 20-25 KT DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF AS FAR W AS 102W FROM 11N-14N AND E TO 96W. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THU...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING SSE THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SWD SURGING HIGH PRES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLY ON FRI AND SAT. TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS NEXT EVENT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTERACTION OF THIS HIGH WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HONDURAS. A WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 10N1115W. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA W TO 110N FROM 10N TO 22N. THIS IS PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ MOSTLY E OF THE SURFACE LOW. BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 13N134W COVERING THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 120W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY MOVING SE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES...AND EXTENDING SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO 25N122W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING NE IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND SHARPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED N OF THE NEAR 34N128W...AND IS SHIFTING SE WITH TIME. AT THE SURFACE... A RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N131W TO 25N125W TO 19N119W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A STRONG STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION LAT WED/EARLY THU. A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THIS TROUGH AND DROP S ALONG 140W THU AND FRI THEN LIFT NE ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY ON THU...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW PORTION ON FRI...WITH YET ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF HIGHER SEAS PERHAPS UP TO 12 FT MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE SPREADING E TO THE N CENTRAL PORTION ON SUN. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM 24N-29N W OF 130W IS PRECEDES THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH CURRENTLY W OF THE AREA. AN INCREASING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SW UNITED STATES AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S AND SE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WED AND THU MAY BRING 20-30 KT NW WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED THROUGH EARLY FRI. WILL AWAIT FOR UPDATED MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY CONSISTENCEY IN THIS TREND OF INCREASING WINDS IN THAT PART OF THE GULF. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS (ABOUT 8-10 FT) WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING TO NEAR 8 FT. $$ AGUIRRE