000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N81W TO 10N95W TO 09N110W TO 
08N120W 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
101W AND 106W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 127W AND 131W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 109W AND 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1622 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 
GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS ANTICIPATED. 
HOWEVER...THAT DATA AND SHIP DANP REVEAL NEAR GALE (20-33 KT) 
WINDS IN THE GAP DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 
DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...HIGH PRES OVER 
MEXICO/SOUTHERN CONUS AND A BROAD LOW SSW OF THE 
TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING WINDS 
SLACKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS MAY ONCE 
AGAIN APPROACH GALE FORCE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. 
HOWEVER...TIMING AND MAGNITUDE WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE 
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 

CONVECTION IS SCATTERED ACROSS THE ITCZ MAINLY ENHANCED BY 
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE AXIS. THESE DISTINCT PERTURBATIONS 
CONSIST OF A TROUGH ALONG 97W AND 128W AND A WEAK 1010 MB LOW 
NEAR 09N112W. NONE OF THESE FEATURES EXHIBIT MUCH ORGANIZATION 
AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. 

TRADE WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG (20-25 KT) FROM 10N-18N W OF 
125W...AS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH N 
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SWINGS E SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING THE NW CORNER. N WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT NEAR THE COAST 
OF BAJA AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS AND A FEW SHIP 
REPORTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY.

$$
CANGIALOSI