000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N79W TO 11N86W TO 07N100W TO 
08N107W TO 07140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN 
COAST N OF 04N.

...DISCUSSION...

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FROM THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THE 
MOMENT...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW GALE FORCW LATER TODAY 
BUT REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE INTO TUE.  THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT INDUCING THESE STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN AS 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 11N95W DRIFTS WESTWARD 
AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
MEXICO WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  IT CURRENTLY 
LIES UNDER A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE...HENCE ONLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH VERY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE 
FOUND WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. 

TO THE S...EXPECT STRONG EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO LIMIT THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION S OF 07N W OF 95W DESPITE THE 
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHED FROM 30N115W TOWARD 
15N140W WILL CUT OFF A WEAK LOW OVER NW WATERS AS THE MAIN 
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD INTO MEXICO TODAY.  THE MEAN 
TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO WILL BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY TRAVERSING 
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CA/BAJA COAST 
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING 
BETWEEN THE CUT OFF OVER NW WATERS AND THE MEAN TROUGH TUE/WED.  
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL 
PRECIPITATION FROM THESE FEATURES.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION N OF 12N W OF 114W...WITH 
WINDS MOST LIKELY TO EXCEED 20 KT IN THE SW CORNER OF THIS 
REGION INTO TUE.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK