000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W 12N87W 09N98W 08N120W  
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 82W-86W AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 102W-104W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 107W-109W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS ARE STILL FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP 
AS THE PRES PATTERN REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT OVER 
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS 
AND MEXICO. HI-RES QSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY REVEALED CORE 
WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. NEW PASS JUST AFTER 00Z SHOWED VERY 
SIMILAR MAGNITUDES. WHILE THE WARNING IS SET TO EXPIRE IN ABOUT 
12 HOURS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR THE NEXT DAY 
OR TWO.  

THE STRONG N WINDS THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC COMBINED WITH USUAL 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL S FLOW HAS AIDED IN THE FORMATION OF AN 
ELONGATED SFC TROUGH FROM 14N91W TO 9N97W...WITH A WEAK LOW 
EVIDENT ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE AXIS.  GLOBAL 
MODELS INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM WELL BUT MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS 
KEEP THE LOW FAIRLY WEAK AS IT TRACKS WWD. 

THE MID AND UPPER PATTERN BASICALLY CONSISTS OF TROUGHING OVER 
THE NW WATERS AND RIDGING OVER THE SE PORTION. THIS PATTERN IS 
TAPPING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND EVEN THE ITCZ LACKS SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. A 1026 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N141W IS 
ENHANCING 20-25 KT NE TRADES FROM 12N-21N W OF 125W. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE TRADES 
SHOULD WEAKEN BEYOND THAT AS A STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER LOW PRES 
PUSHES E...WELL N OF THE AREA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE 
NW CORNER.  

$$
CANGIALOSI