000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191000 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN OCT 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS LIES ALONG 07N77W TO 11N90W TO 07N110W TO 07N120W 09N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120NM N OF AXIS FROM 127W TO 129W. ...DISCUSSION... THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N93W IS INDUCING A GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT TO EARLY TUE MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES ON MOVING THIS EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYERED NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE LOW. FURTHER S...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND RELATIVELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW S OF 10N E OF 90W SHOULD PERSIST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND E OF 80W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA S OF 10N. OVER NW WATERS...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHED OVER NW WATERS FROM 30N125W TO 20N140W WILL PASS EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA LATER TODAY BUT LEAVE BEHIND SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY N OF 20N W OF 130W. THIS LINGERING MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CARRY THE MORE MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 140W S OF 15N SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF FORECAST WATERS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS UNDER A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AND WITH COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION OVER NW WATERS. $$ SCHAUER CLARK