000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190320 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN OCT 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N87W TO 10N94W TO 8N100W TO 8N110W TO 8N120W TO 12N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-107W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 12N93W. LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THIS AREA IS KEEPING A LIMIT TO ANY SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES IS DRIFTING W. FARTHER W...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N130W ...AND EXTENDS TO 27N135W AND TO SW OF THE AREA AT 24N140W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 25N136W. THE TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 120-180 NM TO IT SE. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARDS TO THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA BY EARLY MON BEFORE LIFTING NE AND DAMPENING OUT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE MON AND TUE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N116W MOVES LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AN UPPER CONFLUENT ZONE REMAINS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND W OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 31N141W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 27N133W TO 23N122W AND TO 19N116W. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRES PRESENT TO THE N OF 16N AND W OF ABOUT 116W. A WEAK AND PERSISTENT 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N131W IS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVERAL DAYS BACK. IR IMAGES SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THIS LOW. THIS FEATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W AS A SLIGHT PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ. NE WINDS OF 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE JUST TO THE N OF THE LOW DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRES TO ITS N. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS TO 90 FT N THE REGION S OF 7S W OF 106W...THEN BY 24 AND 48 HOURS S OF 6S W OF 130W AND S OF 6S BETWEEN 92W-105W. GAP WINDS...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 25-35 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS IN THIS VICINITY HAS TIGHTENED AS SURFACE HIGH PRES PRESSES S OVER SE MEXICO AND COMBINES WITH GRADIENT BEING PRODUCED BY THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS STATED ABOVE. SEAS ARE UP TO 11 FT...BUT MAY BUILD TO 12 FT LATER TONIGHT AND TO POSSIBLY 14 FT LATE SUN AND MON. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY POSSIBLY PEAK UP TO 40 KT BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING TO N-NE 20 KT ON WED...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. $$ AGUIRRE