000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N84W TO 11N90W TO 08N99W TO 
11N135W TO 08N140W. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 12N135W WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED NORTH TO SOUTH TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND ITS 
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND SOUTH OF 
THE AXIS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 131W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH MON 
MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA STRETCHED FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
WESTWARD TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR 12N93W.  
EXPECT NORTH WINDS ARE ALREADY PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE 0108 QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMING A 
SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
16.5N94.5W TO 14N95.5W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO 
SLACKEN AND WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE MON.

THE BROAD AREA LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING LITTLE ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT 
LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC PORTION 
OF THIS AREA IS BROADLY DIFFLUENT AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS PLENTIFUL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.25 
INCHES PREVALENT IN THE AREA.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS 
FORECAST WITH THE LOW CENTER NEAR 12N93W AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...NORTH SWELL OVER NORTH WATERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF 
OVER NORTH WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE LONG PERIOD SOUTH 
SWELL WILL BE CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS 
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY WITH SEAS ELEVATED TO 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY 
IN THE REGION S OF 10S BETWEEN 92W AND 112W BY MONDAY MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK