000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 13N88W TO 10N100W TO 09N120W TO 11N129W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT WILL 
BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN STATES FRI AND SAT...SENDING A 
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
REMAINS OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN NOW OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA SHOULD HERALD THE BEGINNING OF A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHICH SHOULD LAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
IN FACT ...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WIND EVENT 
STRENGTHENING EACH DAY AND EXPANDING AS FAR S AS 11N97W BY SAT 
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
WATERS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WIDTH SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE DURATION OF THE 
EVENT SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 9 FT TONIGHT...10 TO 11 FT 
LATE FRI...AND POSSIBLY TO 12 FT BY SAT.

OTHERWISE...THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN 
ARE GRADUALLY MIGRATING ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA AND ARE 
LIKELY TO EMERGE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WATERS S OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH RATHER 
BROAD...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD SLOWLY 
RE-ORGANIZE ONCE BACK OVER THE WATER. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE 
GLOBAL MODELS IS CURRENTLY SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION 
AT THE MOMENT. TO THE EXTENT THAT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITSELF... 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER 
PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

FINALLY...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS ENGULFING THE NW HALF OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO 9 FT SHOULD MEET SW 
SWELL PROPAGATING OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE SOUTH 
PACIFIC...MAKING FOR SOME CONFUSED SEAS GENERALLY S OF 10N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. IN ADDITION TO THE SWELL...S TO SW WINDS 
TO 20 KT COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BUT SHOULD 
DIMINISH WITHIN 48 HOURS.

$$
KIMBERLAIN