000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 09N100W TO 08N115W TO 11N128W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE 
COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 137W 
AND 140W.  

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N127W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS  
LOCATED NEAR 21N110W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE BAJA 
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N102W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED IN THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO JUST NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT S 
OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM 
GUATEMALA TO NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER TROPICS E OF 
100W TO SOUTH AMERICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N.  

SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH AXIS FROM 32N132W TO 
20N115W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
11N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
CENTER. A 1008 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS CENTERED INLAND OVER W HONDURAS NEAR 
14N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 15N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF EL 
SALVADOR FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W.    

$$
FORMOSA