000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161513
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 09N100W TO 08N115W TO 11N128W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE 
COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 96W TO 
100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 135W AND 
140W.  

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N127W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS  
LOCATED NEAR 21N110W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE BAJA 
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N102W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED IN THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO JUST NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT S 
OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM 
GUATEMALA TO NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER TROPICS E OF 
100W TO SOUTH AMERICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N.  

SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH AXIS FROM 32N132W TO 
20N115W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
11N128W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. A 
1008 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
SIXTEEN IS CENTERED INLAND OVER W HONDURAS NEAR 14N88W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 
87W AND 92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF EL 
SALVADOR FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.    

$$
FORMOSA