000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 10N100W TO 07N115W TO 10N125W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 136W TO 
140W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 30N127W
WITH TROUGH FROM THE CIRCULATION SW TO 20N132W. A 50-70 KT WIND
MAX EXTENDS FROM 27N140W 23N130W THEN NE TO 26N123W. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W...
WITH DRY STABLE AIR. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED
NEAR 21N110W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N102W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
JUST NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT S OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM GUATEMALA TO
NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N135W TO 20N121W. A 1010 MB 
SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N127W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. A
1009 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN IS CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR
NEAR 13.5N87.5W. 

$$
DGS