000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.


TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 100W-107W.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N83W 11N104W 8N110W 11N126W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 84W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 123W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE FAR W PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 19N140W WITH RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING E FROM THE CENTER TO 19N128W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N128W TO 20N124W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. FURTHER E...AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS TO AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N112W. 
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW SE 
OF THE ANTICYCLONE. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE 
TROPICAL E PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
10N WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. 

SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N139W TO 17N111W. BROKEN/OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 15N W OF 120W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALONG 28N111W 20N107W WITH NO 
PRECIPITATION. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ 
NEAR 11N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 123W AND 125W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ AT 
140W FROM 7N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.

FORMOSA