000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 100W-107W.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N83W 11N100W 8N110W 11N125W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 84W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE FAR W PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 19N140W WITH RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING E FROM THE CENTER TO 19N128W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N128W TO 20N124W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. FURTHER E...AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS TO AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N112W. 
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW SE 
OF THE ANTICYCLONE. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE 
TROPICAL E PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
10N WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. 

SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N139W TO 17N111W. BROKEN/OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 15N W OF 120W. A 1007 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N110W WITH NO PRECIPITATION.
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N125W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W 
AND 127W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ AT 137W FROM 7N TO 
12N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 
10N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W.

FORMOSA