000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11.5N124.5W 1010 MB HAS BEEN DRIFTING W THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 10.5N126W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF 100W BUT IS  
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ONLY A FEW CELLS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ALONG 100W FROM 11N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS FLUCTUATES FROM 09N TO 11N FROM THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 08N90W TO 
08N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 07N116W TO 07N124W TO 08N137W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NE OLD 
MEXICO NEAR 28.5N105W...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS 
OLD MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC ALONG 19N114W TO A CREST DEEP IN THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY UNDER THIS RIDGE WITHIN 15 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16.5N107W TO 21N108W. THE ASSOCIATED DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE IS A PLUME WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE FROM 17N110W TO BEYOND 31N102W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA... 
GENERALLY N OF 25N W OF 136W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS 
APPEAR VERY DRY W OF A LINE FROM 32N104W TO 15N116W TO 10N140W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO NEAR 20N97W IS MOVING W 
WITH TIME. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS NEAR 19N84W IS ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
SIXTEEN. THE SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE 
UPPER CYCLONE IS TAPPING PACIFIC ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE BETWEEN 
90W AND 97W...AND ADVECTING IT N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA... 
MERGING WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FROM THE 
DEPRESSION AND THE CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER CYCLONE.  

THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC IS CHARACTERIZED NE 
WINDS ALOFT...SPREADING ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE S TO THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N132W TO 17N106W. 
BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED 
GENERALLY SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 120W...
BUT THE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ERODE.

$$
NELSON