000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS...
LOW PRESSURE IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 11N124W 1011 MB. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 
NM OF 11N124.5W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 97W IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO 
LOCATE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ALONG 100W FROM 11N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS FLUCTUATES FROM 09N TO 11N FROM THE COAST OF COSTA 
RICA TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 08N88W TO 
08N107W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 07N117W TO 
09N123W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NE OLD 
MEXICO NEAR 28N105W...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS OLD 
MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC ALONG 19N110W TO A CREST DEEP IN THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 10N137W. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY 
DISSIPATING UNDER THE RIDGE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
18N108W TO 25N105W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N110W TO 30N103W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE 
IS SPREADING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA... 
GENERALLY N OF 26N W OF 134W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS 
APPEAR VERY DRY W OF A LINE FROM 32N105W TO 17N117W TO 11N140W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO NEAR 20N97W IS MOVING W 
WITH TIME. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS NEAR 19N84W IS ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
SIXTEEN. THE SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE 
UPPER CYCLONE IS TAPPING PACIFIC ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE BETWEEN 
83W AND 97W...AND ADVECTING IT N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA... 
MERGING WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FROM THE 
DEPRESSION AND UPPER CYCLONE.  

THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC IS CHARACTERIZED NE 
WINDS ALOFT...SPREADING ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE S TO THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 108W AND 130W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N132W TO 17N106W. 
BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED 
GENERALLY SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS...ROUGHLY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 20N117W TO 26N140W...BUT THE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES 
TO ERODE.

$$
NELSON