000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 
12N123W 1011 MB. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 11N ALONG 97W MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 12N97W TO 09N110W TO 11N125W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 
93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 115W TO 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...THE DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE E OF 100W LOW PRES 
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW. 
A WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS SHOWING UP OFF THE NICOYA PENINSULA 
ON PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE APPEARS 
TO BE SHORT LIVED. SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW S TO SW 
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT PERSISTING BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND 
COSTA RICA. A JASON ALTIMETER OVER THE AREA SHOWS SEAS TO 9 FT S 
OF 10 FT NEAR 8N100W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. DIVERGENT SW FLOW ALOFT SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS 
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE 15 TO 20 KT 
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED 
ABOVE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER 
NORTH ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. FURTHER NORTH...AS THE 
LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN LIFTS NORTH...THIS WILL  INDUCE GAP WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING TUESDAY. IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...A COUPLE OF SHIPS ARE REPORTING 20 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...MATCHING 
EARLIER REPORTS OF 20 KT DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE BETWEEN 1034 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE 
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. 

W OF 110W...AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED 20 KT 
NE WINDS BETWEEN THE REMNANT OF MARIE AND HIGH PRES TO THE 
NORTH. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT CONTINUES 
MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 130W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A BROAD AREA 
OF 20 KT WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE ITCZ NEAR THE REMNANT OF 
MARIE MAINLY W OF 120W...SUSTAINING THE SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS SHOWS SEAS 
TO 10 FT NEAR 08N130W...MAINLY DUE TO MIXED NORTHERLY AND 
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONVERGING IN THIS AREA. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN