000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

LOW PRESSURE IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 12N123W 1010 MB. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 
NM OF 11N124W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 7N ALONG 97W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS FLUCTUATES FROM 09N TO 11N FROM THE COAST OF COSTA 
RICA TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 09N91W TO 
09N116W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SW TEXAS 
NEAR 29N101W...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO 
INTO THE PACIFIC ALONG 19N110W TO A CREST DEEP IN THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC NEAR 10N134W. SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM 
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE IS STILL NOTED FROM 16N TO 25N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY 
DRY W OF A LINE FROM 30N105W TO 14N120W TO 10N140W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N93W IS MOVING W 
WITH TIME. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS 
FOUND IN LOWER LEVELS. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION... 
AND FROM E PACIFIC ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 83W AND 93W...IS NOW 
LIFTING N AND COVERING THE UPPER LEVELS FROM 05N TO 27N BETWEEN 
85W AND 92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC IS 
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT...SPREADING ITCZ DEBRIS 
MOISTURE S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 102W AND 130W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N132W TO 20N116W. 
BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED 
GENERALLY SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS...ROUGHLY WITHIN 390 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 18N118W TO 29N140W...BUT SEEMS TO BE ERODING THE 
PAST FEW HOURS. 

$$
NELSON