000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

THE REMNANT LOW OF ODILE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 104.5W AT 0300 
UTC AND IS DRIFTING NW. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 30 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW...THE REMNANT OF MARIE...IS ANALYZED NEAR 
12N123W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND 
FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT. THE LOW IS SITUATED BENEATH THE APEX OF 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE...ALLOWING FOR DECENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS 
IS COUPLED WITH 15 TO 20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
LOW...AND GENERALLY 15 KT FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE 
LOW...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 12N ALONG 94W MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 07N93W TO 10N103W TO 
07N123W TO 08N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 93W...AND 96W AND 
103W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...RELATIVELY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR IS PUSHING 
ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE MEXICAN 
COAST...ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NE 
MEXICO/SOUTH TEXAS. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MODERATE EASTERLY 
SHEAR HELPED WEAKEN ODILE...NOW A REMNANT LOW TO THE WEST OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW 
IS ALSO INHIBITING ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W 
AND 110W. CONVECTION IS MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ E OF THE 100W 
HOWEVER...DUE TO FAVORABLE SW WINDS ALOFT...AND MODERATE TO 
FRESH SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE ITCZ. A 00Z 
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SW WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND 
THE GALAPAGOS. THIS SURGE HAS LONG BEEN ADVERTISED BY GLOBAL 
MODELS...LIKELY DUE TO LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR SW 
CARIBBEAN OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PANAMA. SOME DISAGREEMENTS 
REMAIN IN GLOBAL MODELS HOWEVER ABOUT THE EXACT POSITION AND 
INTENSITY OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT GENERAL 
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST THEN WEAKEN 
THROUGH TOMORROW AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. LOOK FOR SW WINDS 
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO LIKEWISE PERSIST INTO TUE THEN 
DIMINISH. FURTHER NORTH...FRESH WINDS DOWN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE.

W OF 110W...SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW N TO 
NE WINDS N OF 20N TO BE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT IN MOST AREAS. 
THE WINDS WERE THE PRODUCT OF A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG 
HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND NOW DEFUNCT HURRICANE 
NORBERT OFF BAJA. RELATED NORTHERLY SWELL HEIGHTS ARE STILL 
PUSHING 11 FT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY. FURTHER 
SOUTH...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH SWELL TO 8 
FT IS PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE ITCZ. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS 
MIXING WITH NORTHERLY SWELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ...ALTHOUGH 
OVERALL SWELL HEIGHTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 8 FT OR LESS BY MID 
WEEK. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE NEAR THE REMNANTS OF 
MARIE...LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN