000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 27.5N 108.0W AT 
0900 UTC IS MOVING NE AT 17 KT OR ABOUT 140 MILES SW OF 
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.  NORBERT IS 
BEING STEERED BY A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN 
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE 
RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  IN 
ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 
2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH 
SUNDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 104.7W AT 0900 UTC IS 
MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 
ODILE REMAINS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST...AND 
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A WESTWARD TURN LATE SUN OUT AWAY FROM THE 
COAST. ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS 
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS 
AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 7N ALONG 91W INTO GUATEMALA MOVING W 10 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE IS 
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N83W 11N105W 8N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF S OF AXIS FROM 84W TO 87W 
AND WITHIN 220 NM S OF AXIS FROM 104W TO 114W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N135W TO 22N135W. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE N OF 25N W OF 135W MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 113W. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING 
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. NORBERT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING HOWEVER SW FLOW E THE 
TROUGH WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF NORBERT INTO
INTO NEW MEXICO...TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER MEXICO IS CENTERED NEAR 24N101W.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS S OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
W OF 110W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 11N120W.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES N OF THE AREA WITH STRONG 
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WINDS 20-25 
KT AND LARGE N SWELL. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
ANALYZED NEAR 12N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW.

$$
DGS