000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112156 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE NORBERT CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 110.9W AT 11/2100 UTC IS MOVING NNE AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. NORBERT IS BEING STEERED BY A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM ODILE CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 102.8W AT 11/2100 UTC IS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ODILE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ODILE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER E MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 105W CONTINUING OFFSHORE UP TO 160 NM. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 89W N OF 09N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND MINIMAL CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 11N101W TO 10N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DISCUSSED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE NORBERT COVERS THE AREA N OF 28N E OF 130W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 116W. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N116W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO SE ARIZONA. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 132W FROM 12N TO 26N AND IS MOVING E ABOUT 10 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED UP TO FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W. A BROAD RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT COVERS THE AREA S OF ABOUT 22N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. AT THE SURFACE A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N124W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS FEATURE IS IDENTIFIED AS A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS N OF THE ITCZ AND MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LOCATED N OF 26N E OF 125W RESULTING IN NE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 23N106W TO 13N127W TO 13N140W N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. THE SEAS AS HIGH AS 18 FEET ARE CONFIRMED BY A JASON ALTIMETER PASS AT 0940 UTC. E OF 110W... THE MAIN FEATURE ALOFT OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER E MEXICO NEAR 25N99W WITH RESULTING NE TO E FLOW EXTENDING S TO NEARLY THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 85W AND 110W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED ON A NE TO SW AXIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ CAB