000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AT 0900 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 112.5W OR 
ABOUT 90 NM S OF CABO SAN LORENZO MEXICO MOVING NNE 13 KT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE 962 MB. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. REFER TO LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AT 0900 UTC TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED 16.6N 100.6W OR 
ABOUT 50 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING NW 12 KT. THE FORECAST 
TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF ODILE A SHORT DISTANCE OFF THE COAST 
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE 
EXPECTED MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE COASTLINE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 996 MB.  ODILE COULD PRODUCE 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. 
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE 
REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N90W TO 12N110W TO 10N125W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 220 NM S OF AXIS FROM 108W 
TO 112W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 118W TO 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 30N132W TO 13N136W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE COVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 118W. A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 
115W-130W. SW WINDS SE OF THE TROUGH IS STEERING HURRICANE
NORBERT NE TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR
20N98W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION E OF 115W.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE 32N135W TO 
26N122W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.
BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W 
OF 120W.

$$
DGS