000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110338 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 11/0300 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 113.1W...OR ABOUT 210 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NORBERT IS MOVING N OR 015 DEG AT 10 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND PICK UP SPEED SAT. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE 970 MB. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPRECIABLY WEAKEN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 10/0300 UTC TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED 15.9N 99.4W...OR ABOUT 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 305 DEG AT 11 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF ODILE A SHORT DISTANCE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 997 MB. ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N86W TO 13N106W TO 10N120W TO 10N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURGE OF 30 KT WINDS CONTINUES TO PRESS INTO THE AREA N OF 20N...BETWEEN THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A 1035 MB HIGH PRES AREA OVER THE NORTH WEST PACIFIC. SEVERAL SHIPS IN HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO 30 KT...AND ASCAT DATA SHOWS 25 TO 30 KT FLOW AS WELL MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 120W. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM 2Z SHOWED SEAS UP TO 19 FT NEAR 29N123W...MAINLY IN NE SWELL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN...AS THE SWELL DECAYS SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EAST OF AN OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE NEAR 37N138W. THIS IS STEERING NORBERT MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. EXPECT CONFUSED SEAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOUTHERLY SWELL OFF NORBERT INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERLY SWELL. NORBERT WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW INLAND BY SUN MORNING AFTER CROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BUT LIMITED FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD HOLD SEAS TO NO MORE THAN 12 FT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE ITCZ. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ REMAINS MODEST...BUT SOME CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS ARE NOTED NEAR 125W. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO BETTER CONVERGENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE TO THE NORTH. SOME GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE GALAPAGOS STARTING SUN. THIS IS POSSIBLY DUE DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OR OVER COSTA RICA/PANAMA. $$ CHRISTENSEN