000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102130 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI OCT 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 10/2100 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 113.4W...OR ABOUT 215 NM...395 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NORBERT IS MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 9 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THEN NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...NORBERT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING... THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORBERT WILL THEN MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. NORBERT REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALTHOUGH NORBERT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAJA PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. AT 10/2100 UTC TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED 15.3N 98.3W...OR ABOUT 135 NM...245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 10 KT. A MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF ODILE A SHORT DISTANCE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 997 MB. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 06N78W TO 12N100W TO 11N110W TO 09N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 117W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 8N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF MARIE CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR 13N126W. THIS SYSTEM...AS A SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANOTHER SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NEAR 11N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS STILL GENERATING N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT TO THE NW QUADRANT WHILE NOAA WAVEWATCH III CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN MOSTLY NE SWELL. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NORTH OF AROUND 18N W OF 120W... WITH WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 19 FT OVER THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO N OF 17N W OF 120W. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE...A S TO SW CROSS- EQUATORIAL FLOW OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP AND CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ALOFT...SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 118W. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE ENVELOPING CENTRAL ANS SE MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF THIS ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. $$ GR