000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101535 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI OCT 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 10/1500 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 113.4W...OR ABOUT 240 NM...445 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NORBERT IS MOVING N OR 355 DEG AT 9 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FASTER MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. NORBERT IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE NORBERT REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE NORBERT AROUND MIDDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 973 MB. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. AT 10/1500 UTC TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED 14.4N 97.3W...OR ABOUT 215 NM...395 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 8 KT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE EXPECTED TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ODILE PARALLEL TO...AND NOT FAR OFFSHORE OF...THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 997 MB. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A 65 KT HURRICANE SUN MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AS ODILE MOVES PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 06N78W TO 10N100W TO 08N110W TO 08N125W TO 09N140W. THE ITCZ IS MORE ACTIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 106W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF MARIE CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0540 UTC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N130W. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS STILL GENERATING NELY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TO THE NW QUADRANT WHILE NOAA WAVEWATCH III SUGGESTS SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN MOSTLY NE SWELL. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NORTH OF AROUND 20N W OF 120W... WITH WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 19 FT OVER THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO N OF 15N W OF 120W. OVERNIGHT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPED AHEAD OF T.S. ODILE BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND ZIHUATANEJO. ACAPULCO REPORTED 4.85 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE...A S TO SW CROSS- EQUATORIAL FLOW OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP AND CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ALOFT...SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 118W. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. $$ GR