000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100338 TWDEP 3TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI OCT 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 10/0300 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 113.2W...OR ABOUT 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NORBERT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 973 MB. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN TO THE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST BEFORE 48 HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TO 65 KT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL DUE SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. LEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 10/0300 UTC TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED 13.8N 96.1W...OR ABOUT 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 330 NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR ABOUT 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH EARLIER NEXT WEEK AS IT PARALLELS THE MEXICAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH FRI BUT REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. INTEREST ALONG THE MEXICAN SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS ODILE MOVES PAST. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...OAXACA...AND CHIAPAS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 14N95W TO 09N116W TO 10N122W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N...ASIDE FROM NORBERT IMPACTING THE BAJA COAST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS A 1037 MB HIGH PRES CELL OFF THE OREGON COAST. THIS IS PROMPTING A SURGE OF WINDS DOWN THE COAST...GOING MAINLY FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TOWARD HAWAII. SHIP PDAN IS REPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS AT 30N125W...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NEARBY SHIP KS055 REPORTING 30 KT AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 KT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE WARNING. SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM WAVE WATCH MODEL INPUT SHOWING LONG PERIOD SWELL OF UP TO 18 FT COMING SOUTH WITH THE WINDS. SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM NORBERT WILL LIKELY CLASH ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WITH THE NORTHERLY SWELL TO CREATE A LARGE AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS. THE INVASION OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF 30N WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TO 20 KT AND LESS THAN 8 FT SAT INTO SUN. MEANWHILE...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE WEST COAST STATES AND PUSH INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA...BUT MAIN THICKNESS PACKING REMAINS ONSHORE. S OF 20N...SCATTEROMETER AND TOGA/TAO BUOY NETWORK SHOW SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE ITCZ IS ONLY AROUND 15 KT...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 20 KT FLOW NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ BOUNDARY. THIS LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACCOUNTS FOR ONLY MODEST CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ. NONETHELESS THERE IS AMPLE SOUTHERLY CONVERGENCE INTO T.S. ODILE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE REMAINS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 20N TO NORBERT. LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AND OVER ODILE'S POSITION. LOOKING HEAD...GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS CONTINUE TO HINT OF A SURGE IN SW FLOW E OF THE GALAPAGOS THIS WEEKEND. THE IMPULSE FOR THIS MAY BE THE EXPECTED DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER SW CARIBBEAN. FURTHER WEST...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR 15N127W. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED 20 KT WINDS CONTINUING WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS FEATURE WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. $$ CHRISTENSEN