000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092131 TWDEP 3TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU OCT 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 09/2100 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 112.9W OR ABOUT 320 NM...600 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...THEN NORBERT IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 972 MB. NORBERT HAS WEAKENED SINCE THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 80 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THEREFORE...NORBERT IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WATCHES ARE NOT YET NEEDED FOR THE BAJA COAST SINCE NORBERT HAS SLOWED DOWN...BUT THEY MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 09/2100 UTC TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 95.3W OR ABOUT 160 NM...295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE STORM SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ODILE TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE RAINS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 12N100W TO 10N110W TO 10N130W TO 09N140W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE OPEN TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 16N127W. A SMALL PATCH OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 100 NM NE OF LOW CENTER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NELY WINDS OF 20 KT TO THE NW QUADRANT AS SEEN ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1430 UTC. NOAA WAVEWATCH III SUGGESTS SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN MOSTLY NW SWELL. OTHERWISE...AS AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH WILL FAVOR THE RECURVE OF NORBERT TOWARD THE SOUTH BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS THE REST OF TODAY AND FRI PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND PUSHING LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL WELL S INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1430 UTC ALSO SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS NW OF LINE FROM 30N122W TO 20N140W. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BUILD UP TO 18 FT OVER THE FAR NORTH FRI AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE...A S TO SW CROSS- EQUATORIAL FLOW OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP AND CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ GR