000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091538 TWDEP 3TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU OCT 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 09/1500 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 112.7W OR ABOUT 335 NM...620 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. NORBERT IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE EYE CONTINUES TO BE DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES BUT THE SURROUNDING RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. RAINBANDS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF NORBERT'S CENTER. AT 09/1500 UTC TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 94.5W OR ABOUT 215 NM...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NE TO E SHEAR EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS ODILE MOVES PARALLEL BUT JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION ALONG THE PACIFIC MEXICAN COAST. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ODILE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ALONG WITH A PRIMARY BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ODILE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH BEYOND THE MINIMAL HURRICANE STAGE DUE TO COOLER WATER AND INCREASING ELY SHEAR. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 06N78W TO 08N100W TO 08N110W TO 09N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 4N TO 7N EAST OF 82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUE TO DRIFT ALONG IN THE TRADE FLOW OF THE OPEN TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 16N127W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS PARTICULARLY TO THE NW QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SHIP REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION...NOAA WAVEWATCH III SUGGESTS SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN MOSTLY NW SWELL. OTHERWISE...AS AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH WILL FAVOR THE RECURVE OF NORBERT TOWARD THE SOUTH BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND FRI PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND PUSHING LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL WELL S INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS NW OF LINE FROM 30N124W TO 20N140W. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BUILD UP TO 19 FT OVER THE FAR NORTH FRI AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...A NUMBER OF GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE...A S TO SW CROSS- EQUATORIAL FLOW OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP AND CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ GR