000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090937 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU OCT 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 09/0900 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 112.5W OR ABOUT 355 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT NORBERT IS BEGINNING TO LEAVE THE GREATER THAN 28C WATER TEMPERATURES WHICH IT HAS ENJOYED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WHICH ALLOWED IT TO ACQUIRE MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A HURRICANE JUST PAST PEAK INTENSITY ...WITH SOME DEFINITE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRIES. CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST AROUND 10 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR... WHICH COMPARES WELL TO THE STRONG WEIGHTING OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A DEEP TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND FRI...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE MAIN STEERING FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE N AND EVENTUALLY NE WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SAT MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 09/0900 UTC TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 93.0W OR ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES...WITH A COMBINATION OF MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM. WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NE TO E SHEAR EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS ODILE MOVES PARALLEL BUT JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N85W TO 12N93W TO 08N98W TO 08N120W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 105 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUE TO DRIFT ALONG IN THE TRADE FLOW OF THE OPEN TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 17N126W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 270 NM OF THE NW QUADRANT AND AN 0322 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...TO THE EXTENT THAT IT SURVIVES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND ABNORMALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SHIP REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION...NOAA WAVEWATCH III SUGGESTS SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN MOSTLY NW SWELL. OTHERWISE...AS AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE RAPID EXPULSION OF NORBERT INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL INTRODUCE VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AS A RESULT...N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND FRI...PUSHING LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL WELL S INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALREADY...AN 0320 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W AND A SHIP DHBN JUST NORTH OF THE FAR NW WATERS WAS REPORTING 16 FT SEAS. AT A MAXIMUM... WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BUILD UP TO 19 FT OVER THE FAR NORTH FRI AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...A NUMBER OF GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE...A S TO SW CROSS- EQUATORIAL FLOW OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP AND CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ KIMBERLAIN