000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081521 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED OCT 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 08/1500 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 110.6W OR OR ABOUT 400 NM...740 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 8 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 952 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 110 WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NORBERT HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVERNIGHT AND THE CYCLONE NOW HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTING OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. WITH THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT NORBERT COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER...PERHAPS REACHING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. NORBERT COULD APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE...AND INTERESTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 12N89W HAS BEEN DRIFTING W TO NW DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N82W TO 08N100W TO 07N110W TO 11N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MARIE...NOW A SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS...ARE DRIFTING SOUTHWEST IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW NEAR 17N126W. A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP JUST WEST OF THE LOW CENTER THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH WHAT IS LEFT OF MARIE CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS REVEALED A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW QUADRANT. THESE WINDS ARE BEING MAINTAINED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF MARIE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE NW OVER THE MID-LATITUDE NE PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ADJACENT PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD USHER IN AN EQUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY GALES TO BLOW OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...WITH N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FORECAST TO COVER MOST OF THE NW WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 22N140W BY FRI MORNING. SEAS OF 11 TO 18 FT IN N TO NE SWELL SHOULD REACH INTO THE WATERS GENERALLY N OF 26N W OF 120W. IN ADDITION...SE TO S SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE NORBERT WILL INTERSECT SOME OF THE NORTHERLY SWELL COMING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC...CAUSING VERY ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. $$ GR