000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080351
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE NORBERT AT 15.7N 109.0W AT 08/0300 UTC OR 500 NM S OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 9 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND 90 WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.  REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ 
WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER FAIRLY 
WARM WATER AND IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT...THE 
STORM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DISPLAYING A 
WELL-FORMED EYE WITH A 25 NM DIAMETER. NORBERT'S POSITION ON THE 
SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO THE WNW. A 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...ALLOWING THE STORM WILL RECURVE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE 
BAJA PENINSULA AFTER 72 HOURS. 

DISORGANIZED LOW PRES 12N89W 1008 MB DRIFTING NE AT 3 KT. THE 
LOW REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER HONDURAS. 
QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW SW WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF 
THE LOW...SPARKING PERSISTENT ALTHOUGH FAIRLY MODEST CONVECTION 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER DIVERGENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A GENERAL WESTWARD DRIFT WITH 
THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR...NEITHER HAS 
OCCURRED AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER...A SLOW WEST DRIFT APPEARS TO BE 
STARTING...ALTHOUGH THE LOW REMAINS FAIRLY BROAD. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N86W TO 11N99W TO 09N110W TO 11N121W TO 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W 
AND 120W.  

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 115W...QUIKSCAT SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE ITCZ...SPARKING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W...AND ENHANCING 
ROTATION INTO THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE. FURTHER NORTH...AREA OF 
SEAS 8 FEET OR GREATER WILL EXPAND AS NORBERT CONTINUES TO 
DEVELOP.

W OF 115W...REMNANTS OF MARIE IS NEAR 17N126W MOVING SLOWLY TO 
THE WSW. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS MAINLY TO 
THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD 
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF 30N BY 24 HOURS...BRINGING AN AREA OF 20 
TO 25 KT WINDS AND SWELL UP TO 13 FT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST 
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN