000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE NORBERT AT 15.2N 108.1W AT 07/2100 UTC OR 545 NM S-SE 
OF SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 980 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
75 WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.  REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  NORBERT HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING LAST 12 HRS 
WITH CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTENING UP AROUND ITS 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  NORBERT REMAINS UNDER LIGHT WIND SHEAR 
ALOFT AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH FAVOR ITS 
CONTINUED GROWTH.  FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE 
ALBEIT TWO USUALLY RELIABLE MODELS...ECMWF AND GFS...TAKING 
SYSTEM W AWAY FROM LAND.  NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK W-NW 
SHIFTING N THEN NE IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SW 
FROM W TEXAS TO 13N120W.  NORBERT SHOULD APPROACH COAST OF SRN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRI AND SAT.

LOW PRES 12N88W 1008 MB DRIFTING NE AT 3 KT.  LOW PRES CENTER 
REMAINS SEPARATED ON E SIDE OF DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION WITH 
INCREASING NE WIND SHEAR AS UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONE MOVES 
OVER NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER.  DRIER AIR APPEARS TO BE TAKING 
A TOLL IN DEEP CONVECTION AND SYSTEM MIGHT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN 
THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS GFS AND 
ECMWF MODELS WHICH KEEP IT ALIVE AND TRACKING W-NW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N86W TO 12N96W TO 09N109W TO 12N121W TO 
11N131W TO 12N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 115W-120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF MARIE...NOW BARELY A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AT 
17N126W DRIFTING SW.  WITH ALL DEEP CONVECTION GONE...MARIE ONLY 
IMPACT ON E PAC IS TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT PRES WITH HIGH PRES 
RIDGE JUST N OF BASIN INCREASING NE WIND FLOW WITHIN 240 NM ON 
ITS NW QUADRANT.  NO ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED ON MARIE AND IT 
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS. 

TRAIN OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS MOVING S FROM GALE FORCE N 
WINDS JUST N OF 32N E OF 130W WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS N HALF OF 
BASIN STARTING EARLY WED THROUGH FRI.  NWW3 BRINGS IN SEA 
HEIGHTS TO 18 FT AND N WINDS TO 25 KT LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD 
AND EXTENDING BEYOND THAT THROUGHOUT NRN HALF OF BASIN.

$$
WALLY BARNES