000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE NORBERT AT 15.3N 107.1W AT 07/1500 UTC OR 555 NM S-SE 
OF SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 7 KT.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 987 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
70 WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.  REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  NORBERT SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AGAIN 
WITH SOLID MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WOUND UP AROUND A 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS INCREASE IN 
CURVATURE AND HEIGHT IN W AND NW QUADRANTS INDICATING SYSTEM HAS 
BEEN GAINING STRENGTH.  NORBERT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS 
IT STARTS SHIFTING TO THE N THEN NE IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH DIGGING SW FROM W TEXAS TO 13N120W.  NORBERT SHOULD 
APPROACH COAST OF SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRI AND SAT.

LOW PRES 11N88W 1008 MB DRIFTING NE AT 3 KT.  LOW PRES CENTER 
REMAINS SEPARATED ON E SIDE OF DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION WITH 
INCREASING NE WIND SHEAR AS UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONE MOVES 
OVER NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER.  DRIER AIR APPEARS TO BE TAKING 
A TOLL IN DEEP CONVECTION AND SYSTEM MIGHT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN 
THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 06N90W TO 09N92W TO 09N103W TO 12N115W 
TO 12N125W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 102W-105W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 79W-84W AND 
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 96W-107W.

...DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF MARIE...NOW BARELY A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AT 
18N125W DRIFTING SW.  WITH ALL DEEP CONVECTION GONE...MARIE ONLY 
IMPACT ON E PAC IS TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT PRES WITH HIGH PRES 
RIDGE JUST N OF BASIN INCREASING NE WIND FLOW IN NW CORNER OF E 
PAC.  NO ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED ON MARIE AND IT SHOULD 
DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. 

SUBSIDING NW SWELLS HAVE MERGED WITH SEA HEIGHTS FROM TROPICAL 
CYCLONES IN E PAC.  NEW TRAIN OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS MOVING 
S FROM GALE FORCE N WINDS JUST N OF 32N E OF 125W WHICH WILL 
SPREAD ACROSS N HALF OF BASIN STARTING EARLY WED.  NWW3 BRINGS 
IN SEA HEIGHTS TO 18 FT AND N WINDS TO 30 KT LATE IN FORECAST 
PERIOD AND EXTENDING BEYOND THAT THROUGHOUT NRN HALF OF BASIN.

$$
WALLY BARNES