000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AT 14.1N 103.7W AT 06/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 
300 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 7 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED 55 WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.  REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ 
WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. E WIND SHEAR OVER NORBERT IS LIGHT 
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ORGANIZE DEEP CONVECTION. NORBERT 
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN NEXT 24 HR WHILE 
CONTINUING ITS W-NW PATH.  

TROPICAL STORM MARIE AT 18.5N 123.0W AT 06/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 800 
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING 
WSW OR 250 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1004 MB.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE NOW RESTRICTED TO 100 NM IN SW 
QUADRANT AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS DOWNWARD TREND TILL ITS 
DEMISE POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS.  DRY STABLE AIR MASS HAS 
WEAKENED MARIE FOR THE LAST 30 HRS. 

LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 12N90W MOVE NW AT 10 KT.  AFTERNOON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXPOSE CIRCULATION E OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. CONVECTION HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER BUT 
IT IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE GFS MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY 
DEVELOPED THIS SYSTEM AND IT HAS NOT SO THIS INDICATES THE MODEL 
IS NOT FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE LINE 06N77W TO 07N110W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE POINT 12.5N91.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EAST OF 110W. THE TROUGH 
IS STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTH OF 25N AND VERY WEAK 
SOUTH OF 25N. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF ABOUT 10N A BROAD RIDGE IS 
ANALYZED. DRY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE NORTH OF 20N AND WEST 
OF 125W NORTH OF 15N.

SURFACE...
EXCEPT FOR MARIE A MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE ITCZ AT 140W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 
FOR NORBERT AND THE LOW SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR A BROAD TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED.

NW SWELL SPREADING SE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA.

SW SWELLS HAVE SPREAD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.

$$
LL