000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050940 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN OCT 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 122.0W AT 05/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 710 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE STORM PASSES THE 26C ISOTHERM ON ITS WAY TO EVEN COOLER WATER. WHAT CONVECTION DOES REMAIN IS FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE W SEMICIRCLE...BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND MARIE WILL LIKELY SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 101.4W AT 05/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 180 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WITH ONLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...NORBERT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AT THE STANDARD RATE OF ABOUT ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A HOOKED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER...WITH COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO -90C IN A SMALL AREA. CONTINUED SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE STORM TRACKS WNW. A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED CLOSE TO 11N88W AND IS MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE E OF A LARGE MASS OF MOSTLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT CONVECTION ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENCE OF A SYSTEM UNDERGOING MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSES. NONETHELESS...A FEW OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE CURRENT GENESIS POTENTIAL IS RATED AS MEDIUM (20-50%). ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W TO 09N94W TO 14N101W TO 10N107W TO 19N122W TO 11N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE S CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN A GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A 90 NM SWATH OF N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 150 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE NOAA WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS THAT SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT ARE OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA...IT IS INDEED LIKELY THAT HIGHER SEAS EXIST GIVEN THE LONGEVITY OF THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN FUELING THE GAP WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COULD EXTEND THE EVENT UNTIL MON. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WHICH PUSHED INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY GENERATED A LARGE EXPANSE OF NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE PACIFIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS CURRENTLY ARRIVING OVER THE NW WATERS AND SHOULD SPREAD SE SUN AND MON. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE NW WATERS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 8 TO 12 FT BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FINALLY...SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CONTINUES TO ARRIVE OVER THE SW TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 9 FT IN SOME AREAS. NOAA WAVEWATCH III INDICATES THAT THE SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME OVER THE W MON AND TUE BUT WILL REINFORCED OVER THE E BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ KIMBERLAIN