000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN OCT 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 122.2W AT 05/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 750 NM WSW OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DRIFTING N OR 360 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COOL WATERS ARE TAKING A TOLL ON MARIE. CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED AND IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND MARIE WILL LIKELY SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AT 05/0300 UTC. NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 100.9W AT 05/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 175 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NORBERT HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BLOSSOMING WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS WNW. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N88W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DISORGANIZED AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION...SHEARED BY STRONG UPPER ELY WINDS. HOWEVER...A RECENT QSCAT PASS SHOWED LITTLE SIGNAL OF A SFC CIRCULATION. NONETHELESS...THIS SYSTEM CLEARLY EXHIBITS WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND AS UPPER WINDS RELAX SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. THIS AREA HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (20-50%) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N125W TO 12N132W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS W OF 131W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 26N. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 19N135W AND AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPLYING ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN WATERS...DRIVEN BY STRONG ELY WINDS. SEAS ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EPAC WATERS TONIGHT...OF COURSE THE SPECIAL FEATURES NOTED ABOVE HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE AGGRAVATED SEA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING ELEMENT IS FRESH NW SWELL SPILLING INTO THE NW WATERS AND CONTINUOUS CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THE COMBINATION OF THESE REGIMES WILL KEEP SEAS OF 8 FT OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ZONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GAP WINDS...A 0006Z PARTIAL QSCAT PASS STILL SHOWS N TO NE 20-25 KT WINDS BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THIS LONG LIVED GAP EVENT TO END IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ CANGIALOSI