000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040923 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT OCT 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 122.0 W AT 04/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 730 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MARIE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OR 005 DEG AT 03 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF MARIE HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CENTER LYING WITHIN A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC 120 NM DIAMETER BALL OF CONVECTION. AN ILL-DEFINED BANDS DANGLES FROM THE E SIDE OF MARIE TO A POSITION ABOUT 150 NM SE OF THE CENTER...THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. MARIE SHOULD REMAIN STEADY-STATE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD ...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 98.8 W AT 04/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 205 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARLY MORNING NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY HALF A DEGREE FROM THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION OFF TO THE W. ITS CURRENT APPEARANCE MAKES SOME SENSE...GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL LOW IS WESTERLY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGER FROM THE E...WITH THE RESULT BEING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. OF NOTE...A JASON-1 ALTIMETER PASS AROUND 23Z YESTERDAY INDICATED MAXIMUM SEAS NEAR 12 FT JUST E OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WNW. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC BASIN TODAY AND SUN...WITH SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT IT TOO MAY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AT PRESENT...A LARGE MASS OF DEEP ...COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS EMERGED FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH MOST OF IT CONSOLIDATING WITHIN 120 NM OF 11N88W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 14N99W TO 09N105W TO 18N122W TO 10N130W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 94W. ISOLATED SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 134W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 138W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE S CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN A GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN FACT...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWATH OF N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 150 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE NOAA WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS THAT SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT ARE OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA...IT IS INDEED LIKELY THAT HIGHER SEAS EXIST GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN FUELING THE GAP WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH MEANS THAT WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY HAS GENERATED A LARGE EXPANSE OF NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THE LAST DAY OR TWO. AS A RESULT...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE OVER THE NW WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SE THROUGH SUN. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE OVER THIS AREA TO 8 TO 12 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING FROM W TO E EARLY NEXT WEEK. FINALLY...SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CONTINUES TO ARRIVE OVER THE SW TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 10 FT IN SOME AREAS. NOAA WAVEWATCH III INDICATES THAT THE SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME OVER THE W BUT REINFORCED OVER THE E BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ KIMBERLAIN